Followers

Monday, September 8, 2025


 2024 Budget

Here is a link the the 2024 Federal Budget:

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61181

Note that Mandatory spending ($4.1 Trillion) plus Interest on Debt ($.881 Trillion) amounts to $4.981 Trillion. Note also that Total Revenues amount to $4.9 Trillion.

Thus, the total amount collected by the entire government ($4.9 Trillion) is spent on Mandatory spending and Interest.

The remaining governmental functions (discretionary spending), such as defense, salaries and overhead of the three branches of the government and miscellaneous, are paid with borrowed money.

Assuming we want to balance the budget, what should we do? Should we raise taxes or reduce spending?

Total collections amounted to 17.1% of GDP in 2024 (the value of all goods and services produced by the entire country). In recent years, federal revenue has hovered around 17% of GDP. Total spending amounted to 23.4% of GDP. This means that the government taxed, seized or borrowed and spent about a quarter of the value of all goods and services produced by the entire country.

In 1964, total spending amounted to 18% of GDP (about $122.5 Billion) and mandatory spending was under 30% of total spending (about $40 Billion).

Considering the above, it seems that income is about in line with the growth of GDP but expenditures are not. Therefore, maybe we should look at spending and see why it is so out of line.

It seems that the establishment and expansion of programs like Social Security (1935), Medicare (1966), and Medicaid (1965) increased government outlays as a share of GDP. These “mandatory spending” programs have grown exponentially over the past 60 years and have, in some instances, far outpaced GDP growth.

Let's take a look at these spending programs in detail. Click here.

It is obvious from the above that welfare is the culprit. Interestingly, all you hear about in the press is how Social Security and Medicare are breaking the budget when, in reality, they pretty much pay their way. Welfare (Medicaid, etc.) does not. 

While it is true that Social Security and Medicare spending has increased similarly to Medicaid but so has their related income.

Medicaid spending in the U.S. has significantly increased over time, particularly following the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and the pandemic. In 2023, Medicaid expenditures reached $894 billion, the highest in the program's history. This growth is partly due to increased enrollment and partly due to rising healthcare costs. The ACA allows every Tom, Dick and Harry who makes less than $21,597 access to Medicaid and the Feds reimburse the states 90% of the costs (50% for regular recipients). Check out this Chart.

Approximately 22% of the U.S. population is enrolled in Medicaid. This translates to roughly 72 million people or one in five Americans.

Clearly, this trajectory is unsustainable because it is driving the country into bankruptcy. The recently signed One Big Beautiful Bill Act has made an attempt to, at least, slow the growth of the program.

It is my hope that people will begin to understand the reality and stop believing the misleading information put out by the press.

And That's that!


Sunday, September 7, 2025

 

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act: A Boon for Most Americans

    
    Nearly half (46%) of the public says that they expect the new tax and budget law signed by President Trump in July to generally hurt them and their families, nearly twice the share (26%) who say it will generally help, a new KFF Health Tracking Poll finds. 

    At the same time, most Americans admit they know relatively little about the bill, with two-thirds responding to a Washington Post poll on June 9 that they had heard “a little” (40 percent) or “nothing at all” (26 percent) about it.

    So what should we make of the polls? Probably that most people know nothing of the bill other than the Democratic talking point about cutting Medicaid. These critics are the ones who spent $7+ Trillion on the green new deal which caused inflation to soar higher than it had been in 40 years.

    So, I thought I would try to bring some clarity to the issue.

Introduction

    In recent years, few pieces of legislation in the U.S. have captured as much public scrutiny as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which President Donald Trump signed into law on July 4, 2025. Commonly known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” this extensive legislation aims to significantly reform tax policies, economic incentives, and social programs, keeping in line with key promises made during Trump’s second term. To navigate around potential filibusters in an evenly divided Congress, the OBBBA was passed through the budget reconciliation process.

    The most significant part of the bill simply makes the tax cuts established in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) permanent. It also introduces new deductions beneficial to everyday workers, enhances family savings options, and shifts federal spending to focus on priorities such as border security and domestic energy initiatives. Although critics argue that it could lead to greater economic disparity and national debt, a deeper look shows that the bill's measures offer real advantages to the vast majority of Americans—workers, families, seniors, and small business owners—by increasing disposable income, spurring economic growth, and promoting responsible fiscal management in government initiatives.

Tax Relief for Working Americans: Strengthening the Middle Class

    The OBBBA focuses on provisions aimed at benefitting the working class, a crucial segment of the American populace. One of its standout features is the removal of federal income taxes on tips and overtime pay. For the roughly 6 million tipped workers—many employed in sectors such as restaurants, ridesharing, and hospitality—this change translates to an estimated annual savings of $1,300, complete with retroactive refunds for earnings in 2025. Furthermore, over 20 million Americans who put in overtime—including nurses, law enforcement officers, and factory workers—could see an additional $1,400 per year. These tax exemptions not only boost disposable income but also encourage workers to log extra hours, potentially enhancing productivity and economic growth without the burden of higher marginal tax rates.

    Some critics raise concerns that these deductions complicate the tax system and could favor particular industries, leading to increased compliance costs. However, for the majority, especially those in blue-collar and service roles, these changes represent a clear benefit. By excluding earnings that stem from hard work and extra effort, the bill promotes a fairer approach to taxation, allowing workers to keep more of their hard-earned money. Additionally, a new deduction for auto loan interest on U.S.-made vehicles (up to $10,000) aids the over 10 million Americans financing their cars, thus lowering transportation costs and supporting domestic manufacturing. In times of ongoing inflation and stagnant wages for many, these targeted relief efforts provide essential financial relief, benefiting far more households than they hinder.

    The legislation makes permanent the TCJA's reduced individual income tax rates. The TCJA doubled the standard deduction, and adjusted alternative minimum tax thresholds, simplified the filing process for millions. By making these TCJA changes permanent the OBBBA prevented a significant tax increase that would have affected all working people and could have disproportionately affected middle-income earners after the TCJA's expiration (December 2025). For example, making the standard deduction permanent ensures that around 90% of taxpayers can continue to avoid itemizing, saving both time and money. Additionally, the increase in the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to $40,000 for those earning under $500,000 protects residents in high-tax states from excessive federal penalties, fostering a sense of geographic fairness. The OBBBA provided for permanent expensing for investments in plant and equipment and R&D, paving the way for job creation and higher wages that ultimately benefit many workers. Overall, these tax reforms are anticipated to increase long-term GDP by 0.7%.

Support for Families and Seniors: Building a Secure Future

    The OBBBA places a strong emphasis on supporting families and seniors, recognizing their vital role in our society. One of the key initiatives is the introduction of "Trump Accounts," which are tax-deferred savings plans designed for children. These accounts allow contributions of up to $5,000 each year, and parents will receive a $1,000 government bonus for newborns over the next four years. This initiative encourages families to engage in long-term financial planning, as the accounts transition to traditional IRAs when the child turns 18. This will help provide essential savings for education, buying a home, or preparing for retirement. Additionally, a permanent $200 increase in the child tax credit, which will adjust with inflation, aims to enhance affordability for over 40 million families with children, helping to address declining birth rates and fostering family growth.

    For our seniors, an increased standard deduction of $6,000 ensures that 88% of the 51 million individuals receiving Social Security will not face federal taxes on their benefits, with retroactive refunds available for 2025. This support is especially critical for the 7.7 million seniors who are veterans, providing them with financial stability in retirement as living costs continue to rise. While some critics argue that the $350 billion cost of these exemptions over four years is financially unsound, the potential for increased consumer spending driven by higher disposable income may contribute significantly to economic growth. Ultimately, these measures promote greater financial security, allowing families to invest in their futures while ensuring seniors can live with dignity and respect, all without unnecessary government intrusion.

Economic Growth and Fiscal Reforms: Long-Term Benefits for All

    The OBBBA outlines key economic initiatives that promise lasting advantages for the majority. It made permanent the 20% pass-through business deduction and boosted expensing options for small businesses. The bill supports the 26 million entrepreneurs who are vital to our local economies—potentially creating millions of jobs in the process. While the bill modifies the Inflation Reduction Act’s green energy credits and expands incentives for the fossil fuel and semiconductor industries, it also aims to lower energy costs and strengthen domestic supply chains. This translates to savings for consumers in the form of reduced utility bills and lower-priced goods.

    Additionally, the proposed allocations of $150 billion each for defense and border enforcement directly address national security concerns, while also tackling the societal costs associated with illegal immigration—estimated at billions each year in public service usage. This approach also safeguards American workers from wage suppression.

    However, it is important to acknowledge the controversy stemming from the bill's 12% cut to Medicaid's projected spending increases and its new work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Note that the OBBBA does not impose absolute cuts that would reduce Medicaid spending below current levels. Instead, it reduces the program's projected growth rate through mechanisms that restrict state funding options, and impose new requirements, resulting in lower federal spending over time compared to baseline projections under prior law.

    Critics express concern that up to 10.9 million individuals could lose their health coverage, potentially increasing hardship for low-income families. Public sentiment reflects this anxiety, as 64% of voters share a negative view of the bill, fueled by fears of higher uninsured rates and reduced funding for hospitals. Nevertheless, these reforms aim to eliminate inefficiencies and fraud, promote self-sufficiency, and redirect funds to more effective uses. 

    The cost of the Medicaid program increased by 50 percent over the past five years (from $675 Billion to $1 Trillion per year) without obvious reason so the objective was to slow its’ unsustainable growth rate.

    The bill's projected net fiscal impact of $3 trillion over a decade (mostly attributed to making current law permanent as opposed to new expenses) is counterbalanced by an anticipated $940 billion in dynamic revenue from growth and more than $1 trillion in spending cuts, paving the way for sustainability. For the majority of Americans—not just the wealthiest but the vast middle class—these changes are designed to cultivate a more robust economy rich in opportunity, ultimately outweighing any immediate challenges.

Conclusion

    While the One Big Beautiful Bill Act does have its shortcomings, such as increased complexity in the tax code and varied benefits across income levels, it offers significant advantages for the average American. Workers seeking better wages, families striving to accumulate wealth, and seniors looking for stability can all find value in its provisions.

    By reducing taxes on everyday earnings, encouraging savings, and stimulating economic growth, the OBBBA empowers individuals to flourish within a more liberated market. Historical examples, such as the TCJA, demonstrate that such ambitious policies can yield record-low unemployment rates, rising wages and increase revenue for the Treasury. The OBBBA illustrates that decisive action can benefit the many rather than just a select few. In a nation marked by division, this legislation underscores a commitment to American prosperity, rendering it a positive development for the broader populace.

    And That’s that!